A tale of six African countries
Building back better after COVID-19 means making the agriculture sector more resilient. In this paper, using data from Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger and Rwanda, we develop a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and micro-economic simulation model to assess how the implementation of National Agriculture Investment Plans (NAIPs) will help to achieve the SDGs, Agenda 2063 and Malabo Declaration objectives of agricultural growth, hunger eradication and reduction of poverty and inequality. Our simulation results show that if an agriculture-led investment strategy was pursued, there would be significant progress in terms of reaching the above-mentioned objectives as well as enhanced resilience to climate shocks. Our paper also shows that neither an industry-led nor a services-led growth strategy would produce the same magnitude of results. The agricultural sector is found to outperform the industry and services sectors in terms of job creation, food expenditure, and poverty reduction in all six countries. External and budget-constrained financing options for these investments generate the most consistent positive impacts on socio-economic goals.
Published as AKADEMIYA2063 Working Papers Series, No. 002.